Are we in the first phase of the end of oil exportation?

 

A 2 page summary from the American Society of Mechanical Engineers says yes. 

They propose 3 phases, summarized here.

Phase 1:  When consumption exceeds production in a country that normally exports oil, it will stop exporting.  This happened in the UK in 2003.

Phase 2:  6 years from now worldwide oil production will be on the declining side of the curve. 

Phase 3:  20 years from now, Phase 1 will occur within the world’s top 5 oil exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iran and Norway).   This will  bring about the end of worldwide oil exportation.

Countries highly dependent on oil imports, which now include the USA, China and India, will be hurting.

http://www.ultimax.com/whitepapers/ETP1_ThreeSigns.pdf